# Agencio Predict - Monetisation Strategy

## Revenue Model: Three Entry Points

### 1. SaaS Dashboard (Predict Terminal)

**Target:** Marketing teams, analysts, agencies, traders

| Tier | Price | What They Get |
|------|-------|---------------|
| Free | $0/mo | 5 events tracked, 24h delayed data, basic explanations |
| Pro | $49/mo | Unlimited events, real-time data, full explanations, trust scores |
| Team | $149/mo | 5 seats, campaign predictions (10/mo), calibration reports, priority |
| Enterprise | Custom | Unlimited seats, unlimited campaign predictions, custom events, API access, SLA, audit trail |

**Key conversion levers:**
- Free → Pro: Real-time data + "Why It Moved" explanations
- Pro → Team: Campaign prediction (marketing-specific value)
- Team → Enterprise: Custom events + API + compliance features

### 2. API (Signal-as-a-Service)

**Target:** Fintech apps, trading platforms, analytics companies, media

| Tier | Price | Limits |
|------|-------|--------|
| Developer | $0/mo | 100 calls/day, delayed data |
| Startup | $99/mo | 10K calls/day, real-time, signals + explanations |
| Growth | $499/mo | 100K calls/day, full API (trust, marketing, calibration) |
| Enterprise | Custom | Unlimited, webhooks, custom models, dedicated support |

**API products (each can be sold separately):**
- Prediction signals API
- Explanation API
- Trust scoring API
- Marketing prediction API
- Calibration/accuracy API

### 3. Embedded (Agencio Integration)

**Target:** Existing Agencio users

Built directly into Agencio campaigns:
- Campaign prediction as a feature within the existing platform
- "Predict before you spend" value prop
- Upsell from Agencio base to Agencio + Predict bundle

**Pricing:**
- Included in Agencio Pro/Enterprise tiers (limited predictions)
- Standalone add-on: $29/mo for unlimited campaign predictions

---

## Go-To-Market Sequence

### Stage 1: Free Terminal (Build Audience)

Launch the Predict Terminal as a free tool with:
- 10-20 high-profile prediction events
- Real-time probabilities
- AI explanations
- Basic trust scores

**Goal:** Get 1,000 weekly active users. Build brand as "the place that explains WHY odds move."

**Distribution:**
- X/Twitter threads on major prediction events
- "Why did this prediction move?" content series
- Embed widgets in newsletters and blogs
- Reddit: r/prediction_markets, r/geopolitics, r/marketing

### Stage 2: Pro Conversion (Revenue)

Gate behind Pro:
- Full history
- Real-time (vs 24h delay)
- Trust scoring detail
- Export/API access

**Target:** 5-10% free-to-paid conversion

### Stage 3: Campaign Prediction (Differentiation)

Launch marketing prediction feature to:
- Agencio existing users (warm leads)
- Marketing agencies (cold outreach with free trial)
- Indie creators and brands (product-led growth)

**Target:** This is where the real money is. $149/mo Team tier with 5-10% of marketing professionals.

### Stage 4: API Product (Scale)

Once we have data and proven accuracy:
- Sell signals API to fintech/analytics companies
- License trust scoring to prediction market platforms
- Provide calibration data to media companies covering predictions

---

## Unit Economics (Target)

| Metric | Target |
|--------|--------|
| CAC (SaaS) | <$50 (content-led, product-led growth) |
| LTV (Pro) | $588 (12 months avg retention) |
| LTV (Team) | $2,235 (15 months avg retention) |
| LTV/CAC ratio | >10x |
| Gross margin | 80%+ (primary cost is LLM API calls) |

### Cost Structure (per user/month estimate)

| Cost | Amount | Notes |
|------|--------|-------|
| Supabase (DB + auth) | $0.50 | Shared infrastructure |
| Claude API (explanations) | $2-5 | ~50 explanations/user/month |
| Data sources | $1-3 | Amortised API costs |
| Infrastructure | $0.50 | Hosting, CDN |
| **Total COGS** | **$4-9** | |

At $49/mo Pro pricing → **80-90% gross margin**

---

## Competitive Landscape

| Competitor | What They Do | Our Advantage |
|-----------|-------------|---------------|
| Polymarket | Prediction exchange | We explain WHY, they just show price |
| Metaculus | Community forecasting | We're real-time + AI, they're slow + manual |
| Kalshi | Regulated event contracts | We add trust layer + marketing vertical |
| Bloomberg Terminal | Financial data terminal | We're 100x cheaper + prediction-specific |
| Google Trends | Trend data | We predict outcomes, not just measure interest |
| HubSpot/Marketo | Marketing automation | We predict before you spend, they optimise after |

**Our unique position:**
Nobody combines prediction intelligence + marketing prediction + trust scoring + calibration transparency.

---

## Key Metrics to Track

### Product
- DAU/WAU/MAU on terminal
- Events tracked per user
- Explanation views per event
- Campaign predictions run
- Time on page (terminal)

### Revenue
- MRR / ARR
- Free → Pro conversion rate
- API revenue by tier
- Expansion revenue (Pro → Team → Enterprise)
- Churn rate by tier

### Quality
- Brier score (overall + by category)
- Explanation usefulness rating (thumbs up/down)
- Campaign prediction accuracy (predicted vs actual)
- Trust flag accuracy (true positive rate)

### Growth
- Organic traffic to terminal
- API developer signups
- Agencio cross-sell conversion
- Content engagement (X threads, blog)

---

## Potential Partnership / Licensing Opportunities

| Partner Type | What We Offer | Revenue Model |
|-------------|--------------|---------------|
| Prediction market platforms | Trust scoring API | Per-query licensing |
| News organisations | "Why odds moved" explanations | Content licensing |
| Ad agencies | Campaign prediction engine | White-label SaaS |
| Financial platforms | Signal intelligence feed | Data licensing |
| Regulators | Manipulation detection | Enterprise contract |

---

## Long-Term Vision

**Year 1:** Prediction terminal + marketing predictions. Prove calibration.
**Year 2:** API product at scale. Trust scoring licensed to platforms.
**Year 3:** Universal decision intelligence layer. Expand beyond marketing/geopolitics into procurement, product launches, hiring decisions.

The endgame: any organisation that needs to make a decision under uncertainty uses Agencio Predict to see what's likely, why, and whether they can trust the signal.